Air France flight 447
Some speculation from a former NTSB accident investigator.  An instructor I know who knows this guy sent it to me, so it's rather second hand but the facts and speculations do seem to make sense.  It's kinda long so I'll put it behind a cut.  Would advise you don't read it right now if you're not interested in something of a downer.  I do find it quite interesting, though. 

 

Subject: Air France 447 possible breakup in flight

 

There is some information getting out about the mechanical failures that were automatically transmitted to the company by the aircraft ACARS systems (a continuously operating communication system that is sending messages). Every malfunction of the plane is automatically transmitted to the company at the same time the pilots get the warning.

 

Here is the time line that I have found along with the failures. All time is GMT or Zulu time. For East coast people that means subtract 4 hours to come up with East coast time.

 

1. 0210Z Autopilot failure. This would be 2210 or 1010 PM east coast time.

 

The pilot is now hand flying the plane in possibly severe turbulence due to the storms.

 

2. 0211Z ADIRU failure (air data20inertial reference unit) The pilots primary attitude, airspeed, and altitude displays are starting to fail. There are backups and I don't know how much has failed.

 

3. 0213Z SEC 1 Fault, Alternate flight control laws: This is one of the computers amongst several the pilot uses to control the elevator and spoilers (the roll axis).  He still has backups, but now the computer systems for flight controls are degraded and the pilot has to be careful not to lose control in the turbulence.   The flight control has degraded to what we call alternate law. Time to concentrate on some good hand flying at night in turbulence.

 

4. NAV warnings and Flight control warnings: Nav warnings are the least of his concerns at this point and I still don't know what he had left for flight instruments, but he has lost some and maybe most primary flight instruments. It's time to ignore warnings and failures and just concentrate on what is working. Maintain control of the plane, wings level, proper pitch attitude and power settings until we get through the turbulence.

 

5. Last ACARS message at 0214Z 35,000 feet, failure of cabin altitude, electrical problems, pressurization problems. The pilot was unable to safely hand fly the plane. I don't know why. The airplane is breaking up. The pilot has lost control.

 

Notice that 4 minutes have elapsed since the autopilot failure. At 0214z the multiple warnings and the pressurization problem make me wonder if the pilots were unable to keep the airplane under control, overstressed it at high altitude, high airspeed, in severe turbulence and the overstressed airframe came apart. The pressurization warning may mean the fuselage has broken open and this last transmission indicates that after 0214Z no electrical systems were working because the plane is coming apart as it falls out of the sky and the structural integrity of the wings, fuselage etc. is destroyed.

 

The wreckage for Air France will be scattered over a very wide area if this is true: i.e., at least several miles as seat cushions are falling from the sky starting at 35,000 feet.

 

This analysis of Air France 447 is based on what appears to be pretty specific information that is being reported on the web.

 

228 souls lost.